Employment Outlook Looking Up
North American employers seem positive, but in some European countries, hiring indicators are lagging.
December 14, 2004
Employment Outlook Looking Up
The job market is "decidedly more upbeat" for 2005 than it was at the start
of 2004, according to Manpower.
Of the 16,000 U.S. employers surveyed in the quarterly Manpower Employment
Outlook Survey, 24 percent expect to increase hiring during the first quarter of
2005. Ten percent expect to decrease staff levels.
Manpower says that the Canadian and U.S. employers it surveyed are upbeat.
Europe’s a mixed bag. Germany’s employers aren’t as optimistic about hiring,
while U.K. companies generally have a positive outlook.
Beyond Manpower’s study, other hiring indicators are also bright.
Mark Anderson, president of ExecuNet, a community of senior executives, says
that "recruiters continue to grow more bullish on the executive employment
market."
Corzen, a firm that tracks recruiting metrics, reports a recent increase in
the number of human resources jobs posted on Monster, HotJobs and CareerBuilder.
Human resources employment is sometimes looked upon as a proxy for the health of
the job market in general. Bob Plummer, director of indicator services, says
that "there’s a direct correlation between HR postings and the overall increases
on Monster, CareerBuilder and, to a certain extent, HotJobs. I don’t think any
other category tracks so similarly to the overall gains we’ve seen in 2004."
Plummer says that overall "job postings have been very strong on Monster and
CareerBuilder" from the second quarter of 2004 until about Thanksgiving of this
year, when there was a "seasonal swoon," as is typical.
A look at Korn/Ferry’s most recent financial results--released December
8--look very positive as well. The executive recruiting firm, whose results are
often cited as a harbinger of good or bad times in the job market, says its
fee revenue during its most recent fiscal quarter
was $108.5 million, an increase of 42 percent from $76.7 million in the same
quarter of the prior fiscal year. "Not only is overall demand for recruitment
services up, but we are seeing increased activity in every product offering and
in every region we serve," says Paul C. Reilly, chairman and CEO. "It appears
that many companies are moving into growth mode, and recruitment and development
activity is on the rise." Korn/Ferry’s own expenses are up because it’s paying
more in comp and benefits. Much like its clients, Korn/Ferry is in a hiring
mode.
Scot Melland, president and CEO of Dice, a tech job board , says, "The IT
job market continues to have a nice steady increase month to month" despite a
slight end-of-year slowdown. "The big news here is there’s just been this
continuous improvement in the tech job market," he says. Melland says there are
about 59,114 jobs currently posted on Dice, up about 90 percent from this time
last year.