Signs indicate the labor market for techies in the U.S. is tightening. But as
recent news of layoffs at AOL suggests, the situation is far from a repeat of
the late 1990s.
In July, employment of information technology workers in the U.S. increased
by 4,900 people from the previous month to nearly 3.7 million, according to a
report from the National Association of Computer Consultant Businesses, a trade
group of IT services firms. The group, which analyzes data from the U.S.
Department of Labor, said IT employment rose nearly 160,000 during the past 12
months.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has dropped for those in computer and
mathematical occupations, a category that includes computer programmers,
database administrators and computer systems analysts. The jobless rate for such
workers fell from 4.2 percent in 2004 to 2.9 percent in 2005, according to the
Labor Department. It was down to 2.5 percent in the second quarter of this
year.
On the other hand, the median weekly earnings of people in computer and math
occupations rose an anemic 1.6 percent from 2004 to 2005, according to Labor
Department statistics. The country’s rate of inflation was 3.4 percent during
that period.
One reason for the discrepancy between lower unemployment and slow wage
growth is that many people dropped out of the computer profession completely,
says Kim Berry, president of labor advocacy group the Programmers Guild.
"We don’t see any shortage," Berry says. "Ninety-seven to ’99 were hot times.
This doesn’t feel like hot times."
Layoff announcements at marquee tech firms bolster Berry’s claim.
Semiconductor giant Intel has moved to cut 1,000 management positions, computer
maker Sun Microsystems is slashing 4,000 to 5,000 jobs, and IT services provider
Computer Sciences is axing about 1,800 jobs in North America. In mid-August,
software company CA said it would cut 1,700 jobs, about half of which are likely
to be positions in North America.
AOL expects to pare back its worldwide workforce by about 5,000 employees—or
26 percent—during the next six months. The job cuts come as the Internet portal,
a division of Time Warner, plans to offer products such as e-mail for free to
broadband users. AOL declined to give details about coming layoffs. But a source
within the company suggested tech support positions could be affected, given
that AOL will be reducing its level of customer support with the free offerings.
"Included in ‘free’ is not 24-by-7 customer support," the source says. AOL has
customer support centers in cities including Tucson, Arizona, Oklahoma City and
Ogden, Utah.
Despite the job cuts and meager wage growth overall, some observers view the
pool of technical talent in the U.S. as quite shallow. High-tech industry group
AeA (formerly the American Electronics Association) cites a dearth of quality
job seekers as grounds for tapping foreign nationals. AeA calls for measures
such as expanding the annual cap for H-1B guest worker visas, a move opposed by
the Programmers Guild.
"High-tech companies are increasingly seeking skilled labor to feed a growing
industry and cannot find it," AeA said in a report this year. "Visit the Web
site of many American technology companies and you will find thousands of
unfilled U.S.-based positions."
—Ed Frauenheim