Manpower’s latest quarterly employment outlook survey showed its weakest
hiring projections in four years.
The report, released Tuesday, March 11, revealed 9 percent of the 14,000 U.S.
companies responding to the survey expect reductions in staff levels between
April and June, according to Melanie Holmes, vice president of corporate affairs
for the Milwaukee-based staffing giant. A majority of respondents—60
percent—expect no change in their workforce levels, and 26 percent plan to
increase hiring.
By comparison, during the first quarter of 2004, 13 percent of employers
anticipated cuts in staffing, while 61 percent thought headcount would remain
the same and 20 percent projected increases.
Manpower’s outlook at the same time last year was somewhat stronger, with 7
percent of respondents anticipating staffing cuts.
Despite the tepid outlook, Holmes says this shouldn’t be troubling for the
labor market.
“We are not seeing any signs of mass panic out there,” she notes. “Companies
seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach.”
Holmes says this cycle is different from previous recessionary periods
because it is less volatile. The market is not experiencing the historic dips
that normally precede an economic downturn.
Nevertheless, employers are hesitant to move aggressively with hiring plans,
she notes.
Evidence that the labor sector is losing steam seems to be mounting. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported two straight months of negative job
growth. According to its most recent report, 63,000 jobs were shed from the
economy in February. That is on top of the 22,000 that were lost in January.
These figures are of concern, says Sylvia Allegretto, an economist at the
University of California-Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education. Given
its population and economy, the U.S. should be adding 150,000 jobs a month. Jobs
in manufacturing, retail trade and construction are the weakest, according to
the BLS reports.
This pattern is similar to the results in Manpower’s 2008 second-quarter job
forecast, where companies in mining, manufacturing and construction reported
decreases in hiring confidence. By contrast, companies in transportation and
public utilities are expecting increased staffing levels, albeit slight ones,
according to Holmes.
Employers in the West and Midwest are projecting the weakest hiring outlook
in the coming months, while companies in the Northeast and South are expecting
relatively stable hiring plans.
Manpower’s report also examines the global job outlook—shedding light on
hiring activity in 32 countries and territories. The second-quarter outlook is a
mix globally, Holmes explains.
Employers in Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore are reporting the most
optimistic projections. By contrast, companies in Spain and Italy indicated the
weakest hiring outlook in the second quarter.
China’s year-over-year hiring projections are weaker across every industry,
casting a cloud of uncertainty over the coming year.
—Gina Ruiz