CFOs say recession concerns in the U.S. are already tempering their
companies’ budgets, spending and hiring, according to the latest survey of CFOs
conducted by Financial Executives International and Baruch College’s Zicklin
School of Business.
When asked their view of a potential recession in the U.S. in the current
year, 41 percent of the CFOs surveyed said they think the U.S. is currently in a
recession, while another third think it’s likely to go into a recession in the
next six months. Only 18 percent said they did not expect the U.S. to go into a
recession in 2008.
Given that pessimistic mood, it’s hardly surprising that 34 percent of the
CFOs said they had delayed the implementation of business-related spending
during the first quarter of the year.
Last week, for example, General Motors CFO Ray Young indicated the automaker
had put some capital projects on hold to help conserve cash.
“What we are hearing from CFOs is, recession or not, they are taking
defensive measures to combat the economic slowdown,” said John Elliott, dean of
the Zicklin School of Business. “This quarter’s survey revealed that almost half
of the CFOs are in agreement with U.S. economists and believe we are currently
in a recession.”
Finance chiefs are also looking at other ways to rein in costs. Close to half
of the CFOs surveyed identified hiring as an area for cutbacks. Nearly a quarter
cited layoffs.
Despite the plans for curbing hiring or laying off workers, average net
hiring by the survey group’s employers is set to increase 3 percent this
year.
“However, that’s down noticeably from prior quarters and most are delaying
previous hiring plans,” Elliott said. “They have a budget in place that was set
in November or December, but the world looks different now.”
It sure does. The weakening dollar doesn’t seem to be boosting CFOs’ morale,
either. While about a third of the finance chiefs reported that the declining
dollar has led to increased international sales, those gains appear to be offset
in some cases by rising prices. Over half the respondents said they have seen an
increase in the costs of commodities and raw materials. And a third said their
quarterly earnings have decreased.
Of note to policymakers: When asked about the economic stimulus bill, only 12
percent of CFOs said they would increase equipment purchases to take advantage
of the recently passed stimulus bill, which allows for stepped-up depreciation
on equipment purchased and placed into service in 2008.
For more on the survey, click here.
Filed by John Goff (with additional reporting by Frank Byrt) of Financial
Week [hotlink this, please], a sister publication of Workforce Management. To
comment, e-mail editors@workforce.com.