Every week, I get pitches from PR people touting experts who want to talk about
the great talent shortage that will soon be upon us, given that the 76 million baby
boomers born between 1946 and 1964 will start retiring soon. I’m sure these "experts"
are well-meaning, but like a lot of the verbiage that experts and consultants spew,
I don’t buy it.
That’s not to say that there won’t be worker shortages in some specific areas
(think nurses or other health care workers, for example), but the notion that the
baby-boom generation will retire in lockstep once they hit age 65 is ridiculous.
We’ve said it in numerous stories in Workforce Management, like in this
story by
Ed Frauenheim.
A story this week in The Detroit News also hits this baby boomer talent-shortage
myth squarely on the head. The story, "Baby boomers stay on the job longer than
other generations,"
focused on the need for companies to help older workers who plan to remain in the
workforce past the typical retirement age of 65. The article pointed to an AARP
survey that found that 69 percent of laborers between the age of 45 and 74 plan
to work during their retirement.
According to the story: "The economic impact will be ‘positive,’ said Dana Johnson,
chief economist for Comerica Bank. Retaining older workers will ease the burden
of finding enough new employees to replace the 10 million baby boomers who will
be eligible for retirement by 2010. Working longer also means seniors are still
contributing to the dwindling Social Security fund. ‘To me, it’s a good example
of the flexibility of our economy,’ Johnson said."
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not saying that businesses should sit back and do nothing
because workers are going to magically keep working and stay on the job. It’s always
prudent to plan for unforeseen shortages and contingencies, whether we’re talking
about workers, materials or anything else. But I do believe that all the gloom-and-doom
talk about some giant worker shortage because baby boomers are going to start retiring
in droves is fueled by people taking an extremely limited and narrow look at retirement
patterns. What they are forecasting will be, at best, a demographic ripple and not
the giant tidal wave they want us to believe is out there.
"I plan on working until I drop dead," Carol Dowdy, 59, wellness director for
Artisan/National Logistics Management in Detroit, told the News. Amen to that, I
say, because I’m one of those baby boomers who just happen to agree with her and
plan to do the same. I suspect that there are a lot more of us in the same boat.
Got a thought about the predicted talent shortage or any of my other posts? Until
we get the comment posting function on this blog operational, send me comments at
jhollon@workforce.com. I will publish as many of them as I can.
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