harles Trafton, a Boston research analyst at Adams, Harkness & Hill,
follows Paychex and other workforce-management vendors so that he can make
recommendations to mutual funds and other clients. Because of several short-term
challenges such as Paychex’s high stock valuation, Trafton has recently been
telling clients to reduce their shares of Paychex. In the long run, however, he
says, "it’s a fantastic company." His other thoughts:
On the wealthy CEO B. Thomas Golisano: "Look," Trafton says, "billionaires
are just like you and me, they just do different things for fun. He’s spent
tens of millions of his own dollars running an almost hopeless campaign [for New
York governor]. But the investment community is quite enamored with him. Paychex
has had incredible earnings and cash-flow growth rates for 20-plus years, and
Tom’s been at the helm of that."
On the quality of the Paychex workforce: Trafton says that as Paychex’s
stock has skyrocketed, employees have reaped the benefits. "It’s a fantastic
company," Trafton says, "very well run, and Golisano is looked at very
positively by investors and by his employees. There are a lot of millionaires at
the company that owe him. He’s got a very strong, very deep management team. A
lot of middle managers at Paychex are given a lot of authority, and they make a
lot of money. He’s very well respected internally, within the Paychex sales
force in particular. The sales force is very aggressive and very high
performance."
On the company’s strengths: Trafton says that Paychex still has a large
market of businesses to tap into. "The beauty of Paychex," he says, "is
that there are millions of small employers, and most of them still do payroll
in-house--gas stations, restaurants, liquor stores. It’s so cheap for Paychex
to take it over and take over the liability and do it correctly." In many
companies, Trafton says, the small-business owner doesn’t want employees to
know how much everyone makes, so the owner does payroll alone. This is a
time-consuming hassle that Paychex can help take off a business owner’s desk.
"Paychex is at the right end of the market with the right kind of services;
they’re paying a nice dividend and growing very quickly. They’re more
profitable than Microsoft."
On Paychex’s challenges, and the competition: Automatic Data Processing,
Inc., a leader in payroll, human resources, and benefits, has a division that
focuses on small companies, and the firm has a record of consistent growth that
most any corporation would envy. Still, Trafton says that ADP’s weaknesses
leave a big opening for the company. "Paychex has very high client retention,"
he says, "unlike ADP, which has a reputation for poor service and has very
high client turnover. Paychex is very client-centric and is very efficient."
In addition to ADP, Paychex is competing with small businesses and local CPAs
around the country. It also has Intuit nipping at its heels, trying to succeed
at the payroll business by buying up payroll-processing companies. Other Paychex
competitors include Fidelity and Ceridian.
On top of that, Paychex has more obstacles to face, Trafton says. First,
unemployment is up, which means fewer checks to process. Second, there are fewer
new businesses starting up, and small businesses are Paychex’s sweet spot.
Last, interest rates keep getting lower, which hits Paychex’s "float"--the
interest it generates while it holds on to a company’s tax payments, waiting
to send them to the IRS. In fact, says Trafton, "future upside [for the
company’s business] is in the hands of the Paychex sales force, but probably
more so in the hands of the Fed and its interest-rate policy."