Non-Human Capital: With apologies to the late Rod Serling, the Twilight Zone
creator’s episode of “Obsolete Man” gets a chilling refresher in a new
government report. By 2025, robots could begin to reduce companies’ reliance on
some workers, especially those in lower-skilled service jobs, according to
“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” The 99-page report marks the fourth
installment of the National Intelligence Committee’s effort to identify key
drivers likely to shape world events in the next two decades.
In particular, “the U.S. lead in highly skilled labor will narrow as large
developing countries, particularly China, begin to reap dividends on recent
investments in human capital, including education,” the intelligence agency
says.
The U.S. “may be uniquely able to adapt its higher education and research
system to rising global demand and position itself as a world education hub for
the growing number of students that will enter the education market” by 2025.
Opening more U.S. classrooms and laboratories could stiffen job competition for
students here, but the nation’s economy “would likely benefit because companies
tend to base their operations near available human capital.”
However, the increased use of robotics technologies, driven by companies’
desire to cut costs while boosting production, could “reduce demand for service
labor” and “disrupt unskilled labor markets.”
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